Accuracy badges:
✓ Fully Verified all data points confirmed HIGH from primary source
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✓ Mostly Verified majority HIGH, some MEDIUM
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⚠ Partially Verified confirmed endpoints; gaps shown honestly
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⚠ Mixed Confidence mix of HIGH / MEDIUM / Canada-wide
The problem
Premiums are rising — but claims are rising faster
2024's 97.1% loss ratio becomes 133.5% including admin — insurers paid $1.33 for every $1 collected. Premium data confirmed for 2022–2024 only.
Alberta Auto Loss Ratio, 2019–2024
Above 85% = unsustainable. 2022–23 values unconfirmed (open circles = estimated midpoint).
Alberta Average Auto Premium, 2022–2024
Confirmed years only. 2019–2021 not found in primary sources reviewed. 2024 is H1 average only.
Why did the pandemic create a false signal? In 2020–2021, reduced driving cut claims — loss ratios fell to ~61%. Premiums were held flat. When driving fully recovered in 2022–2023, years of deferred cost inflation hit all at once.
The cost drivers
Bodily injury severity is the single biggest structural problem
Average BI claim cost rose +123.9% from $79,739 (2019) to $178,609 (2024). All four major claim types are up — all figures HIGH confidence from AAIRB 2025.
Bodily Injury Severity: 2019 vs 2024
Confirmed endpoints only — AAIRB 2025 (HIGH). Dashed trend line is illustrative linear interpolation.
Average Claim Cost by Type: 2019 vs 2024
All four claim types confirmed HIGH confidence from the same primary source.
What's driving BI severity? Legal costs rose +34% in two years; healthcare and care-recovery benefits up +25%; health levies on insurers increased +70% over three years.
The catastrophe layer
Alberta is ground zero for Canada's hailstorm exposure
The August 5, 2024 Calgary hailstorm generated $3.29B in insured losses (CatIQ final, Aug 2025) — the largest single hailstorm event in Canadian history. Combined with the Jasper wildfire ($1.3B updated Jul 2025), Alberta's confirmed 2024 cat losses total ~$4.59B.
Alberta's Major Insured Catastrophe Events, 2016–2024
Confirmed Alberta-specific events only. Years without a major confirmed Alberta event are omitted — this is not a complete annual time series.
Comprehensive Claims: 2024 vs 5-Year Average
Hail-driven surge in 2024. Both periods confirmed HIGH confidence from the same primary source.
Comprehensive coverage is the flashpoint: In 2024, comprehensive claims jumped +61.6% while total cost surged +143.3% to $1.237B — vs a $508M five-year average.